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Vehicle Sales & Transfer Duty November 2011

Written by  Dr Johan Snyman
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Vehicle Sales & Transfer Duty November 2011 Vehicle Sales & Transfer Duty November 2011

Vehicle Sales & Transfer Duty November 2011.













Total vehicle sales were 19% higher in Oct 2011, compared to Oct 2010.  Compared to Sep 2011, they were 4% lower.



The (smoothed) annual percentage change of vehicle sales is currently 15%, and is a mirror image of plans passed, albeit on a higher plane.



The poor state of the residential property market is reflected in poor nominal levels of transfer duty gathered by the fiscus



In real terms the lacklustre performance is just as evident.   Real levels are now on a par with those prevailing during the 2008/09 financial Crisis.



When analysing year-on-year changes, the cyclical pattern is evident, except that the percentage movement is currently negative, compared with smaller positive movements in 1993 and in 2000 (refer circles).  More evidence of extreme weakness in the residential property market.  In fact, the percentage decline is severe, at -18%.


Dr Johan Snyman

Dr Johan Snyman

Johan Snyman obtained his BComm and MComm in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch, and complete his doctorate at the University of Cape Town.  He spent 8 years working as an economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch and then established a private consulting firm, becoming Director of Medium-Term Forecasting Associates, a company specializing in research into building cycles and building costs.

In 2007 he was appointed Adjunct Professor in the Department of Construction Economics and Management at the University of Cape Twon.